It is common knowledge that in football games prediction, public loves playing favorites. It seems the public has a stupid mentality that says they are prediction on the better team when they lay the points with the “chalk.”
- First, let’s look at this from a strictly law-of-averages perspective. If you bet the favorite, three things can happen, and two are not good. The love could lose the game straight up, or the favorite could win the game, but not buy more points than you had to give up. The only way you approach is if your favorite wins the game by more points than you had to give up. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will lose your wager.
- And the second, if you back the underdog, three things can happen, and two of those things are in your favor. The underdog could win the game straight up, or they could lose the game, but by fewer points than you are receiving.
So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will win your wager. Two scenarios are common in the football score predictions world.
- First, a favorite comes out and exerts their will on their opponent, getting out to a huge lead. But in the NFL, there are no pollsters to impress, so what is the favorite’s motivation to continue running up the score?
- The second scenario, sees the love come out flat, with a lack of motivation against what they perceive to be an inferior opponent. Maybe the favorite is coming off a huge win against a division rival and has another rival on deck.
Many times, the choice will storm back and escape with the win, but not the cover. By no means am I saying you should only bet underdogs, but it would seem to be a good idea to back an underdog in the right situation as opposed to predict a favorite just because they appear to be the better team.
Remember, the better team does not always win and sometimes the team that seems to be the better team is not. Records can be deceiving.
For example, Team ABC might be 3-0, but they played three teams that haven’t won a game. Team XYZ might be 0-3, but they played three teams that haven’t lost a game. Don’t get caught up in the records. Statistics can also be deceiving.
For example, Team ABC may be scoring 30 points per game, but they played against defenses that are allowing 30 points per game. Team XYZ may be scored only 20 points per game, but they played against tougher defenses that are allowing only 20 points per game.
Careful analysis is always required. Do not take statistics at face value.
Many times the stats are skewed, or they are not as they would appear to be. Again, the thorough analysis is required. In summary, you should not bet all favorites or all underdogs.
True professional bettors wager on primary losers because, as I mentioned earlier, in that scenario, two out of the three scenarios work in your favor. So while predictions all underdogs is not the road to predict riches, it is a good idea first to look at taking the points.